The Pro Tour is where preparation meets precision—and with the London event just around the corner, every edge matters. Whether you’re fine-tuning your decklist, debating which hero to sleeve up, or simply following the action from home, understanding the evolving metagame can be the difference between a strong Day 2 and an early exit.
But looking at recent event results only tells part of the story. Are there insights to be extracted from the latest deck testing action on Talishar? Who’s trending up, who’s dropping off, and what might the pick landscape look like when players shuffle up for some of the biggest tournaments of the season?
In this article, I’m bringing you a data-driven meta overview, combining:
- A look at hero popularity trends over the past weeks,
- A deep simulation of Top 8 outcomes (both raw and pick-weighted),
- And visual tools to identify meta playstyles and sleeper picks.
Let’s start with how the meta is evolving.
📈 Hero Popularity: Pick Rate Trends
In the lead-up to Pro Tour London, three heroes have clearly risen to the top in terms of popularity:
- Aurora, Shooting Star – A consistent frontrunner, holding a strong lead in pick rates early on and staying near the top even with a slight decline in the last few days.
- Fang, Dracai of Blades – Steadily climbed and now solidly positioned as a top meta pick, showing no signs of fading.
- Florian, Rotwood Harbinger – Quietly consistent, with small ups and downs, but maintaining a strong presence throughout.
Meanwhile, Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X has been one of the biggest surprises—starting low but doubling in pick rate over the last ten days, suggesting players are waking up to its potential.
We’re also seeing some interesting pivots:
- Aurora’s dip over the last week could signal a shift in trust—or a desire to dodge mirrors.
- Verdance, once a hype pick, has faded in representation, possibly due to matchup concerns.
- Enigma and Cindra have held fairly stable, suggesting they’re finding a niche among dedicated pilots.
These trends offer a crucial glimpse into what competitors are likely testing—and what you might face across the table. But popularity alone doesn’t win games. Up next: we’ll use statistical modeling to forecast who’s most likely to break into the Top 8 when the dust settles.
🎲 Who Should Make Top 8? Monte Carlo Says…
Popularity is one thing. Winning is another.
To move beyond pick rate and anecdotal results, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation of 1,000 tournaments, using real matchup win rates to probabilistically determine outcomes. This method—borrowed from statistical physics and quantitative finance—lets us strip out noise and randomness to estimate which heroes truly have the strongest Top 8 potential.
🟦 Equal-Pick Simulation: What If Everyone Was Picked Equally?
In the first simulation, every hero entered each tournament with the same pick rate. This levels the playing field and focuses purely on head-to-head strength. Here are the results:
- Aurora, Enigma, and Zen are all in the upper 50%+ range, confirming their dominance.
- Florian and Nuu punch well above average, showing that they convert matchups into Top 8s at an impressive rate.
- Arakni and Victor Goldmane also stand out as dark horses—less popular, but mathematically potent.
🟨 Pick-Weighted Simulation: What Happens Given Actual Popularity?
In the second run, each hero was assigned based on current Talishar pick rates, giving us a prediction that reflects real-world meta trends.
- Aurora absolutely skyrockets, boasting an 86% Top 8 appearance rate thanks to both strong matchups and a massive player base.
- Enigma and Florian also thrive, reinforcing their status as potential tournament staples.
- Fang and Nuu remain strong contenders—less flashy, but statistically reliable.
- On the flip side, heroes like Azalea and Cindra struggle to convert, suggesting that even if you bring them, you’re fighting uphill odds.
These simulations highlight how pick rate alone doesn’t always align with win potential. Some heroes are popular but flawed, while others are more rare but deadly. Understanding this gap is key to making smart meta calls.
⏱️ Popularity vs. Speed: What Kind of Game Are You Signing Up For?
Let’s face it: some heroes finish games before you’ve blinked. Others… grind through the clock like they’re being paid by the hour.
To help players navigate not just who is good, but what kind of experience each hero offers, I mapped every hero by two dimensions:
- Pick Rate: How commonly a hero is played on Talishar.
- Pace of Play: A normalized score representing how fast matches tend to be when that specific hero wins.
This gives us a four-quadrant view of the meta:
🟦 Quadrant I – High Speed, High Pick Rate
These heroes are popular and snappy. If you want to win and get to lunch early:
- Dash I/O, Azalea, Aurora, Cindra, and Vynnset live here.
- These are fast, aggressive decks with proven appeal.
🟨 Quadrant II – Slower, Yet Popular
Brace yourself. These heroes show up a lot, but they tend to drag games out.
- Florian, Enigma, Nuu, Verdance, Fang, Jarl, Arakni (both variants)—they’re the meta’s endurance runners.
- Great conversion rates, but not for the impatient.
🟥 Quadrant III – Slower, Low Pick Rate
If you’re here, you’re likely a control specialist or a stubborn soul. Or both.
- Dorinthea, Teklovossen, Uzuri, Victor, Riptide, Kassai—rarely seen, and often for good reason.
- Not just slow, but unpopular. High effort, low love.
🟩 Quadrant IV – Faster, But Unpopular
Now this is a spicy quadrant.
- Kano, Fai, Oscilio, Zen, Boltyn—these decks can close games fast, but few players bring them.
- If you like to zag when others zig, this is your playground.
🔍 Hidden Power: Heroes Who Overperform Their Popularity
In the competitive realm of Flesh and Blood, pick rate and win rate usually go hand in hand—the more a hero is played, the more often they win. But what happens when a hero defies expectations, performing better than their pick rate would suggest? By examining the difference between a hero’s actual win rate and their expected performance (based on pick rate), we can identify hidden gems and underperformers in the current metagame.
Here’s how the heroes stack up:
💎 Underpicked Gems (Low Pick Rate, Overperformance)
These heroes might not be the most picked, but when they do show up, they deliver strong results. If you’re looking to surprise your opponents, consider these underappreciated picks:
- Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty: Despite a relatively low pick rate, Victor is outperforming expectations with a high win rate, making him a potential sleeper pick.
- Zen, Tamer of Purpose: Zen may have a moderate pick rate, but their incredible overperformance puts them in the “dark horse” category, capable of surprising even seasoned players.
📈 Meta Staples (High Popularity, Expected Wins)
These heroes are staples of the current metagame, dominating both in terms of pick rate and win rate. If you’re facing one of these, you know you’re in for a tough match:
- Aurora, Shooting Star: With a perfect pick rate, Aurora remains the hero to beat, consistently performing well in the current meta.
- Nuu, Alluring Desire: A dominant force with high pick rates and solid performance, Nuu is a well-rounded choice that delivers results.
- Fang, Dracai of Blades: With one of the highest pick rates, Fang continues to live up to their reputation as a strong pick in the meta.
💤 Overplayed Strugglers (Low Residuals, Meh Win Rate)
These heroes are frequently chosen but fail to live up to expectations. Despite their popularity, they’re not performing as well as players might hope:
- Arakni, Marionette: Despite a high pick rate, Arakni is underperforming, suggesting it’s time to rethink their viability.
- Dash I/O: Frequently picked but underwhelming in results, Dash continues to struggle with consistent performance.
- Jarl Vetreiđi: Often seen on tournament tables, Jarl just isn’t cutting it with a disappointing win rate relative to its popularity.
🤔 Curious Cases
Some heroes are performing better or worse than expected in ways that aren’t immediately obvious. These heroes may have niche potential or are simply not getting the recognition they deserve:
- Kassai of the Golden Sand: A rare pick with high residuals, Kassai may not be the most popular, but their potential in the right hands is clear.
- Azalea, Ace in the Hole: While Azalea has a solid pick rate and respectable performance, they aren’t quite overperforming compared to other top-tier picks—making them a consistent but not top-of-the-meta choice.
This data-driven analysis helps us dig deeper than the usual “meta flavor of the week” picks, revealing the true potential of heroes in the current metagame. The lesson? Sometimes the best pick isn’t the one everyone’s playing—yet.
🧠 Final Thoughts: Ready for London?
What we’ve uncovered here isn’t just a simple tier list—it’s a snapshot of how perception and performance diverge in the ever-shifting metagame, where strategy can be as influential as raw power. As the Pro Tour in London approaches, the heroes at the top of the charts or also very close to LL, like Aurora and Zen, continue to dominate. But dig deeper, and you’ll find heroes like Victor Goldmane, Riptide, and Azalea—quietly outperforming their pick rates and ready for players with the insight to recognize their potential.
With the Pro Tour just around the corner, this is where smart players make their move. Raw strength matters, but success is earned when you choose the right tools. The Monte Carlo simulations back this up: it’s about finding the right balance, the right picks, and sometimes even the unexpected heroes that can catch your opponents off guard.
So, as you prepare your deck for London—whether you’re refining your main deck or brewing up an off-meta strategy—remember: the meta is fluid, not fixed. In a competitive field, the best players are those who question the obvious choices, not just follow them.
When the dust settles in London, ask yourself:
Are you playing what’s winning—or what should be winning?
