With Viserai, Rune Blood getting closer and closer to ascending to Living Legend status and exiting the Classic Constructed format, the competitive landscape is bound to shift. Viserai has long been a dominant force, shaping matchups and defining strategies. Now, with his expected imminent absence, there’s plenty of speculation on how the meta will shift. But what does the data tell us about this hypotetical redistribution of power among the remaining heroes?
To quantify this shift, I analyzed the change in average win rates for each hero before and after Viserai’s removal. To do this I leveraged data of 55420 matches from Talishar, played between February 7th and 20th, and lasting between 10 and 50 minutes. After calculating the current win rates, I removed Viserai from the matchup matrix and recalculated the weighted average win rates for each remaining hero, redistributing Viserai’s pick rate proportionally. This allows to trace who will benefit the most from the ban.
The following plot illustrates this change, with each hero represented by two points: their current win rate and their new win rate post-Viserai ban, with a star denoting the latter.
Key Observations
- Riptide Emerges as a Big Winner
One of the biggest beneficiaries of Viserai’s absence is Riptide, Lurker of the Deep, who sees a significant +3.1% increase in win rate. This suggests that Viserai was a major obstacle for Riptide, and with his removal, Riptide’s matchups have improved substantially. - Significant Gains for Several Heroes
The heroes who gained the most from Viserai’s departure include:- Florian, Rotwood Harbinger: +2.9%
- Prism, Awakener of Sol: +2.5%
- Verdance, Thorn of the Rose: +2.4%
- Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty: +1.8%
- Vynnset, Iron Maiden: +1.8%
These heroes likely struggled against Viserai and now have more favorable matchups in the meta.
- Zen, Tamer of Purpose Takes a Hit
The biggest loser in this shift is Zen, Tamer of Purpose, who sees a -1.4% drop in win rate. This suggests that Zen may have been benefiting from Viserai’s presence, either by countering him directly or by taking advantage of matchups that Viserai previously suppressed. With Viserai gone, Zen’s position in the meta has weakened. - Incremental Changes for Other Heroes
While most heroes have gained slightly, some changes are relatively minor:- Dorinthea Ironsong: +0.89%
- Azalea, Ace in the Hole: +0.45%
- Cindra, Dracai of Retribution: +0.43%
- Aurora, Shooting Star: +0.31%
These small changes indicate that these heroes were less affected by Viserai’s presence and removal.
Interpretation and Implications
Viserai’s departure would mark a subtle yet meaningful shift in the competitive landscape of Classic Constructed. The biggest beneficiaries, Riptide, Florian, Verdance, and Prism, would have a stronger foothold in the meta, while Zen would face new challenges as his win rate declines. Other heroes should experience modest gains, highlighting how Viserai’s absence smooths out previous imbalances rather than creating drastic upheaval.
For competitive players, this shift emphasizes the need to reassess matchups and refine strategies accordingly. Heroes that struggled against Viserai would have better opportunities, while those that benefited from his presence must adapt. As the Flesh and Blood meta continues to evolve, staying informed about these trends will be crucial for maintaining a competitive edge.
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